2009 Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/02/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tuesday night marks the beginning of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, and headlining this year's postseason action is the surprising Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks. The Skyhawks rattled off a 14-4 mark in league play, claiming their first-ever OVC regular-season title. Finishing second to UT-Martin was the OVC defending champion Austin Peay Governors, who finished this season with a 13-5 mark in league play. Also finishing with a 13-5 ledger was the Murray State Racers. The Racers were one of the hottest teams in the conference down the stretch, and although the team is the third seed in this tournament, this is still a very dangerous group.

One of the big surprises this season, other than UT-Martin, was the exciting play of the Morehead State Eagles, as they soared to a 12-6 mark in league play. The team definitely stumbled down the stretch, but still managed the fourth seed and a home matchup against the fifth-seeded Eastern Kentucky Colonels. The Colonels posted a respectable 10-8 mark in conference play, but the team is definitely a step below the top four seeds in this tournament. A dark horse in this OVC postseason could be the sixth-seeded Tennessee State Tigers. The Tigers only finished 9-9 in conference action, but were one of, if not the hottest team in the league down the stretch. Eastern Illinois stumbled into the postseason with an 8-10 mark and the seventh spot in the tournament, while the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles defeated Jacksonville State, 91-74, to grab the final spot in this year's bracket.

The Golden Eagles' prize for getting past the Gamecocks and into the postseason is a date with the lethal Lester Hudson and the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks in the first round of play. The Skyhawks' tremendous season has plenty to do with the play of Hudson, who is currently second in the nation with 26.6 ppg. However, Hudson does much more than just score point at a rapid pace. The guard is also leading the team in rebounds (7.7 rpg), assists (121) and steals (70). Hudson is the top player on a UT-Martin squad that is extremely dangerous, averaging a conference best 79.1 ppg. Marquis Weddle, who scored 30 points in the team's season-finale win over Morehead State is the only other player posting double figures, as the guard is contributing 14.5 ppg. The win over the Eagles was the second straight victory for UT-Martin, which heads into this matchup with a strong 11-3 mark at home.

As for the Golden Eagles, they come into this matchup on a high note, defeating Jacksonville State soundly, 91-74. However, the win was the first for the team in the entire month of February, snapping a seven-game slide. Tennessee Tech does possess some solid scorers however, as the team is netting 73.6 ppg on the year, which is good enough for third in the OVC. Daniel Northern has proven to be one of the best frontcourt players in the league and is posting 12.4 ppg and a team-best 8.6 rpg. Frank Davis, who is shooting a strong 43.0 percent from behind the arc, is netting 10.1 points, while Will Bynum is also chipping in 10.1 ppg.

The second contest in the first round will be the defending champion Austin Peay Governors against the seventh-seeded Eastern Illinois Panthers. The Govs were able to taste OVC success last season, and earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Although the team was bounced in the first game against Texas, the Govs have every intention on returning to the Big Dance. To do so however, the team must square off against EIU first. Austin Peay closed out its regular season with three wins in its last four games, and is led by the tandem of Drake Reed and Wes Channels. Reed has been a strong presence in the paint, netting 22.2 4ppg, while also grabbing 7.7 rpg. As for Channels, he has been a solid floor general, posting 16.8 ppg, to go along with a team-best 93 assists.

The Panthers will surely have their hands full in this matchup, especially since the team finished last in the OVC with 64.9 ppg. On top of their inability to score points, the Panthers won just three times on the road this season, and come into this contest with six losses in their last seven games. Romain Martin has been the only true bright spot for the Panthers, netting 15.2 ppg, but for EIU to grab a victory in this contest, the guard is going to have to have the game of his life and get plenty of help.

The third-seeded Murray State Racers will open up at home against the sixth- seeded Tennessee State Tigers. The Racers are an interesting team, as coach Bill Kennedy's squad relies mainly on tough defensive play in a conference that is filled with high-scoring teams. Murray State finished first in the OVC in scoring defense, holding opponents to just 62.7 ppg, which was three points better than the team in second, Eastern Kentucky. Murray State might not be as flashy as UT-Martin, but the team is just as hot, winning seven of its last eight games, finishing the year with a 13-5 OVC record. Where the team will likely have trouble is at the offensive end of the floor, as the Racers do not possess a go-to weapon. Danero Thomas is pacing the team with 12.2 ppg, while Isacc Miles is contributing 10.4 ppg and 109 assists.

The Racers by no means get an easy matchup, as the team will be pitted against a Tennessee State team that won its last six games to get to this point. The Tigers are on the other end of the spectrum in terms of defensive play however, as the team finished ninth in the OVC in scoring defense, as opponents have pounded TSU for 78.1 ppg. If the Tigers plan on having any success in the postseason the team will need Gerald Robinson and company to perform at a high level offensively. Robinson is currently leading the team with 17.6 ppg, and has also dished out 114 assists. Jerrell Houston is one of the more developed players in the frontcourt in the OVC, as the forward is contributing 14.0 ppg and a team-best 7.4 rpg.

The fourth-seeded Morehead State Eagles will collide with the fifth-seeded Eastern Kentucky Colonels in the final first-round matchup. The Eagles were one of the biggest surprises earlier in the year, as the team spent some time in first place. However, heading into the postseason Morehead State could be in trouble, as the squad has dropped its last four matchups, including a four- point loss to Eastern Kentucky. Morehead State was mediocre at both ends of the floor, but for this team to be successful the Eagles will need a tremendous effort out of their frontcourt tandem of Leon Buchanan and Kenneth Faried. Buchanan comes into the tournament leading the team with 15.3 ppg, and is also grabbing 6.5 rpg. As for Faried, he is a double-double machine, posting 13.5 ppg, while grabbing a league best 12.6 rpg. If there is a silver lining for the struggling Eagles it is their home record which is a sensational 11-1 on the year.

As for the Colonels, they also stumble into the postseason, having lost their final two games of the regular-season. EKU is another defensive-minded team, much like Murray State, as the team finished second only to the Racers, allowing just 65.7 ppg. Unfortunately the team is a one-trick pony offensively, and that pony is Mike Rose, who is third in the league averaging 20.2 ppg. Rose is also leading the team with 5.4 rpg, 74 assists and 50 steals. Rose has the ability to win a game by himself, but against Morehead State's gruesome twosome in the frontcourt, Rose and company could be out of luck.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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