Fielder, Brewers edge Giants

Baseball Betting Lines

07/19/2008 - San Francisco, CA (Baseball Betting) - Prince Fielder put the Brewers ahead with a solo home run in the seventh and added an insurance RBI single in the ninth, as Milwaukee downed San Francisco 8-5, in the middle contest of a three-game series at AT&T Park.

Rickie Weeks knocked in two runs while Corey Hart doubled twice with two runs scored for Milwaukee, which has won three straight. Ryan Braun added three hits and scored a run. Carlos Villanueva (4-5) picked up the win with 1 1/3 perfect frames.

Jose Castillo, Omar Vizquel and Eugenio Velez had two hits and an RBI each for San Francisco, which has now lost eight of its last nine overall.

Osiris Matos (0-2) started the seventh for San Francisco and Fielder didn't allow the game to be tied for long, leading off with a home run over the fence in right, his 20th of the season. Hart then delivered a double to left, stole third and scored on a Mike Cameron ground out.

Milwaukee added an insurance run in the ninth off Alex Hinshaw. Braun tripled to right leading off and scored on a Fielder line single to center. Salomon Torres retired the Giants in order in the bottom half to earn his 16th save of the season.

Brewers starter Ben Sheets went just five innings having surrendered four runs - two earned - on nine hits and a walk. Sheets struck out three but couldn't immediately capitalize on his strong first half that earned him the right to start for the National League at Tuesday's All-Star Game.

Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez pitched well but ran into trouble and was pulled with one out in the sixth, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks while fanning eight. The right-hander extended a personal winless streak to three consecutive starts.

The Brew Crew continued to receive a boost at the plate from their pitching staff with a two-out RBI double from Sheets in the second. Jason Kendall doubled to center prior to Sheets' at-bat.

The Giants used a four-run fourth to take the lead. Aaron Rowand doubled to left leading off and scored on a Castillo single through the right side. Castillo stole second and scampered home on a Vizquel poke-single to right. Sanchez moved Vizquel to second with a sacrifice and an error by shortstop J.J. Hardy allowed him to score. Velez capped the scoring with a two-out RBI double to left.

Milwaukee loaded the bases in the sixth, chasing Sanchez from the mound. Keiichi Yabu entered and promptly uncorked a wild pitch scoring one and an errant throw by catcher Bengie Molina let another run cross the plate. Kendall was then hit by a pitch and Weeks laced a two-run double to center two batters later giving the Brewers a 5-4 advantage.

San Francisco came back to load the bases off Mitch Stetter in the home half. Randy Winn plated a run with a force out at second but Villanueva took the hill and recorded the third out, keeping the game tied at five.

Game Notes

Milwaukee swept the Giants at Miller Park earlier in the season, but had lost five straight in San Francisco before Friday's win...Sunday's series finale will feature Milwaukee's Manny Parra (8-2) and San Francisco's Tim Lincecum (11-2)...Vizquel left in the sixth inning after fouling a ball off his left foot. He was able to finish his at-bat against Mitch Stetter with a walk but was replaced by pinch-runner Ivan Ochoa who eventually scored. Ochoa remained in the game at shortstop.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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